HOW TO MAKE PERFECT SENSE OF THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE?

Anthropogenic- (chiefly of environmental pollution and pollutants) resulting from human activities.

Cook et al, 2016 (Studies on global warming consensus)

(I) “In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!” — Donald J. Trump (December 2017)

A Trump administration report has calculated the heating of the planet by a disastrous 7 degree C by 2100. Despite this, they choose to not amend the business-as-usual approaches.

They have chosen to permit more coal plants, release more methane, abolish curbs on Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and call anthropogenic climate change/global warming a hoax. They represent one side of the global warming debate.

This post dissects the global warming debate and mentions 9 alarming issues about a heating world.

But what is Global Warming?

Global warming is the overall heating of the planet-

(a). more summers than winters;

(b). uncanny and unpredictable weather conditions of terrible dry spell at one place & calamitous deluge at another;

(c). melting of ice and glaciers;

(d). in no way implies the complete omission of cold, although reduces its period progressively.

“Ten indicators of warming world- increasing air temperature (near troposphere), humidity, temperature over oceans, sea surface temperature, sea level, ocean heat content, temperature over land; decreasing glaciers, snow cover and sea ice…all of which are happening.”- (Union of Concerned Scientists)

WHO IS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE?

(II) “Anyone who doubts climate change should come to this lovely low-lying island…But come quickly, while it’s still here…Already much of Kutubdia has been swallowed by rising seas, leaving countless families with nothing. Bangladesh is expected to be particularly hit by rising oceans because much of the country is only a few feet above sea level…” – The Guardian

Clearly, global warming causes climate change. (To know the uncontroversial meaning of climate change- read here)

Places like Kutubdia do not have regular electricity supply, let alone a considerable carbon footprint, but they have the fastest-ever sea level rises recorded worldwide.

With more intense and frequent cyclones, longer summers, shorter monsoons, bigger tides and deluged lands, even the rich have become beggars, migrants and refugees.

12 years are on our hands to save the planet from a catastrophic climate change, claimed a UN report this month. (To know the 10 aspects of climate change- read here)

2015 Paris Climate Treaty capped on paper the temperature rise to be under 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels, rather possibly at 1.5 degree C. However, numerous successive reports have found the Agreement to be otiose.

Present temperature is already 1 degree C above the pre-industrial temperature, being the warmest in 11,000 years. The USA has quit the Paris Treaty. The UN does not expect emission cuts more than 1% of what is required, despite shelling out trillions of dollars as per the pact.

Even if all the signatory countries followed every promise of carbon reduction, the temperature reduction will be no more than 0.17 degree C by 2100.

Two issues are clear then- A huge part of the world is on the affected side of the global warming debate; and the world has only LIMITED TIME to avert a catastrophic climate change, but no unified strategy, commitment or dedication to do so.

HOW ARE THESE LAND-SWALLOWING SEA-LEVEL RISES ANTHROPOGENIC?

"CO2 has increased by nearly 43% in the last 150 years."

GHGs like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide (N2O), CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons), water vapour etc. keep the Earth warm by keeping sunlight inside the planet.

30% sunlight is reflected back into space by clouds and ice; most of the 70% is absorbed by ocean and land. This is the greenhouse effect, without which the Earth's temperature would be -18 degree C instead of 15 degree C of the present.

When human activities like burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, overpopulation escalate greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it heats the Earth’s temperature beyond acceptable levels, causing anthropogenic global warming.

With human involvement, we have outpaced all the changes of heating and cooling that occur naturally.

SHOULD I BE WORRIED ABOUT THE PLANET’S HEATING?

"Global warming isn't real because I was cold today! Also great news: World Hunger is over because I just ate."- Stephen Colbert

Yes, if the following issues worry you.

1. Sea level rises- With melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels are obvious. Sea level rise comes from melting of Antarctica and Greenland's solid ice cover, and not North Pole’s floating ice.

Also, water above and below 4 degree C expands more than its otherwise denser state at 4 degree C, therefore, warm sea level rises naturally without contribution of melted ice.

If complete West Antarctica ice melts, sea levels could rise over 32 feet.

Figure 1 Global warming induced loop of melting ice

NOAA climate.gov

2. CO2 increases CO2 levels- Figure 2 shows how the carbon dioxide, that we spew through human activities, gets into a feedback holding its concentration high.

Figure 2 Feedback loop holding carbon di-oxide levels high in the atmosphere.

3. Heat waves- As the planet continues to heat up, so do the wind patterns.

Warmer land & warmer waters mean warmer winds and storms.

Heatwaves take thousands of lives every year. With longer and hotter summers, these heatwaves are bound to get more.

4. Malnutrition- Figure 3 illustrates how excess CO2 in the atmosphere drains our staples of valuable nutrients and the consequential global warming collapses the produce.

Figure 3 Why high carbon di-oxide levels cause malnutrition?

5. Health crises-

“Air pollution is causing hundreds of millions of people in India to lead shorter and sicker lives. India lost 1.625 million healthy years to pollution in 2016.”

Higher GHGs pollute the planet’s atmosphere. Air pollution contributed to 3.2 million new diabetes cases, 14% of all new cases worldwide, in 2016!

Air pollution hampers body’s insulin production and restricts conversion of blood glucose into energy. (1) (2) (3) (4)

Figure 4 Health Crises due to Higher Temperatures

6. Coral bleaching-

Coral reefs proffer pharmaceutical drugs for cancer, HIV, cardiovascular diseases, ulcers and other maladies.

But higher temperatures and higher GHGs are pushing them to their end worldwide.

Figure 5 (a) Unbleached coral reef harbouring life.

Figure 5(b) Bleached coral reef in acidified oceans.

Figure 6 How marine organisms are unable to produce shells & skeletons in acidic oceans?

Figure 7 What is Coral Bleaching?

The only way corals can survive this stress is if water temperatures become normal swiftly.

7. Water crises-

“Global warming is expected to account for about 20 percent of the global increase in water scarcity this century.” – Time for Change

Figure 8 Why making adequate water available for agriculture, industry and human consumption is one of the greatest challenges of the century?

8. Thawing Permafrost- The ground, rock or soil, at or below 0 degree C for at least two years is termed permafrost. Vastly found in most of the Northern Hemisphere in Arctic regions of Siberia, Greenland, Alaska, Tibetan Plateau, Rocky Mountains, Andes, Alps, Antarctica etc.

This ‘frozen earth’ or permafrost is thawing due to global warming.

Figure 9 What are the ramifications of permafrost thawing?

Figure 10 How permafrost thawing sets the loop for MORE global warming?

Arctic permafrost has about 15 million gallons of the neurotoxin mercury, that too will get released on thawing permafrost.

9. Vanishing flora and fauna- The Earth is undergoing sixth mass extinction event in 0.5 billion years.

Figure 11 Human factors pushing flora and fauna to extinction

WHY IS THERE A DEBATE ON GLOBAL WARMING'S EXISTENCE THEN?

Policies influenced by big lobbies, vested interests or sheer ignorance. Hence, (I) represents a politically, morally and ethically corrupt ideology fostering inane, inhumane, insular and selfish beliefs. (II) is a real picture of various low-lying villages and places worldwide, especially south-east Asia.

All debates then are unnecessary, and only robbing us of the precious time of making fundamental changes through significant and united actions.

What next?

Next time, we discuss the solutions to the anthropogenic global warming problem.

The solutions all begin with individual actions, with every choice and decision we make as a denizen of the Planet Earth- all about Thinking Globally, but Acting Locally.